The Birth of Demographics: On the Bills of Mortality
Learn how one insightful book connects the plagues of 16th-century London with our modern experience of epidemic disease.
The Birth of Demographics: Graunt’s Natural & Political Observations on the Bills of Mortality
This is the first edition of one of the most important, and rarest, books in the history of science: John Graunt’s Natural and Political Observations on the Bills of Mortality, published in 1662. Its revolutionary premise, that simple mathematics could be used to understand population-level patterns of illness and death, connects the plagues of the 1500s with our modern experiences of epidemic disease.
Author John Graunt, born in 1620, was a haberdasher and councilman in London, described by a friend as ‘a very ingenious and studious person’ (Oxford Dictionary of National Biography). During the 1650s he became interested in London’s Bills of Mortality. These publications listed the causes of all the recent deaths in the city, their purpose being to warn residents about plague epidemics.
The Bills were published intermittently during the 1500s and began appearing on a weekly basis in December of 1592. So, by the time Graunt was an adult, decades worth of data was available. His stroke of genius was realising that statistical analysis could reveal the patterns in it. Among the topics that Graunt explored were rates of illness, especially the plague; lifespans and child mortality (including the first life expectancy tables); the influence of the seasons on deaths; the gender breakdown of the population; and demographic changes across London and nearby counties.
Most importantly, Graunt was, ‘well aware of the limitations of his data… citing such defects as a lack of thoroughness, inadequate disease vocabulary and dishonest reporting of deaths from certain causes such as syphilis’ (Hook & Norman, The Norman Library of Science and Medicine 933). Rather than implicitly trusting the sources, he investigated how the information in the Bills was obtained and how it could be improved, and reached the conclusion that better data collection would lead to a better understanding of the needs of the population.
‘The application of critical scientific methods to medical and vital statistics, which underlies so much of modern government and economics, can be traced back to John Graunt's remarkable book' (Printing and the Mind of Man 144). Modern epidemiology, the study of how diseases occur and spread through populations, is the direct ancestor of Graunt’s work. And many countries, including the UK and US, have modern versions of the Bills of Mortality, in which weekly analyses of illnesses and deaths are published to identify epidemics and other health threats. These were particularly important in the identification and management of HIV, swine flu, and covid.
Natural and Political Observations on the Bills of Mortality was an immediate success, with five editions printed by 1676. But copies of the first edition are now extremely rare, with only four appearing in auction records since 1998, so we’re very excited to be able to offer this attractive example for sale. It can be viewed online, or seen in our bookshop at 94 New Bond Street in London. For enquiries contact our Science Specialist Laura Massey.
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Written by Laura Massey
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